MMA OBSERVER

All time accuracy: 36/55 picks (65%)
Running total (£10 stake per fight): Up £34.55

Up £21.40 based on £10 stake per fight

UFC 69: Uprising

Event March 3, 2007
Picks Published March 3, 2007 15:15 GMT
  • Tim Sylvia (-306) vs Randy Couture (+276)
    • After a thoroughly demoralising showing picks-wise at Pride 33, where I dropped all four picks on a night of upsets, I am looking to do better on what should be an easy card to pick. Then why am I starting off by picking Captain America when very few give him a chance of taking the belt from the much larger and much younger champion?
    • A few reasons.
    • People may have forgotten that, minus his last two losses to the man who knocks everybody out, Couture was never knocked out in his career. People talk of Sylvia knocking Couture out like it is an easy task, but he has shown throughout his career that this is not the case. I don't see Sylvia getting the KO in this fight.
    • The second reason people are taking Sylvia is because he is a big man like the two big men who gave Couture trouble in the heavyweight division, inspiring him to drop down to light heavyweight. Rodriguez and Barnett stopped Randy by ground and pound, I would like to point out. When was the last time you saw Sylvia show an effective ground and pound game?
    • I see this fight going the distance, which brings up the third reason people are taking Tim on this outing: age. Couture is 43 years old, and five five minute rounds could prove quite a challenge for the ex-champion. If the fight does go the distance, this is bound to be a factor. Despite this concern, I see Couture doing enough early on to take the decision in a 25 minute war.
    • And yes, I am serious.
  • Matt Hughes (-648) vs Chris Lytile (+588)
  • Renato Sobral (-425) vs Jason Lambert (+385)
  • Rich Franklin (-443) vs Jason MacDonald (+403)

Down £40.00 based on £10 stake per fight

Pride 33: The Second Coming

Event February 23, 2007
Picks Published February 23, 2007 19:52 GMT
  • Wanderlei Silva (-266) vs Dan Henderson (+246)
    • Dan has a lot of pride and brings a dangerous and effective style into the ring with him, but I'll have to go with the favourite here. We saw how the styles of these two fighters matched up in their first fight, and not enough has changed since then to alter the outcome this time around. Silva by a large-margin decision.
  • Mauricio Rua (-415) vs Alistair Overeem (+375)
    • Overeem is my underdog pick of the night. He has all the talent to pull big wins off but often falls short. This time I feel could be different. Rua hasn't looked nearly as aggressive in the ring since his loss to Coleman last year, and Overeem should be able to capitalise on this.
  • Kazou Misaki (-303) vs Frank Trigg (+273)
    • It's good to see Frank back in the ring fighting top talent – don't get me wrong. But Misaki has too much over him. Misaki by submission.
  • Takanori Gomi (-347) vs Nick Diaz (+317)
    • This is an exciting matchup, and I'm looking forward to seeing Nick in the Pride ring. But he is being thrown into the deep end here, and has always lost when coming up against big talent. While Diaz always puts up a good fight it is unlikely he'll take this one home.

Down £11.53 based on £10 stake per fight

Elite XC: Frank Shamrock vs Renzo Gracie

Event February 10, 2007
Published February 10, 2007 18:50 GMT
  • Frank Shamrock (-340) vs Renzo Gracie (+280)
    • Renzo is a solid fighter and a massive step up for Shamrock in comparison to his last (non-)fight against Cesar, but he is unlikely to walk away the victor here. Frank has been inactive but has continued to train during this time, and looks to have come into this fight in great shape. Style-wise he is the more active fighter in the ring, and combined with the advantage of youth a win should be coming his way – most likely by unanimous decision.
  • Antonio Silva (-450) vs Wesley Correira (+370)
    • Silva is the hottest up-and-coming super heavyweight out there today, with a recent (early stoppage) loss to Eric Pele marring his otherwise perfect record. Cabbage has had a tough time of it recently, but he is still a capable striker with a chin of granite – he is no pushover. Nevertheless Silva has all the momentum, a big size advantage, and the sharper striking. I'll take Silva by referee stoppage.
  • David Loiseau (-160) vs Joey Villasenor (+130)
    • Villasenor had accrued a four year, fifteen fight win streak before losing a split decision to Ryo Chonan, and more recently losing to Robbie Lawler via TKO in what could have been an early stoppage. Loiseau was also on a multiple fight win streak before losing soundly to both Rich Franklin and Mike Swick. This is a great matchup between two highly skilled strikers that need to win, and expect both fighters to come in highly motivated. The outcome is hard to predict, but I will give an edge to Villasenor, whose recent losses have been less due to performance than circumstance.
  • KJ Noons (-315) vs Charles Bennett (+255)
    • 'Crazy Horse' is one of the loosest cannons in MMA. He is unpredictable, unorthodox, and unprofessional when it comes to training and taking his fights seriously – and he can be a lot of fun to watch. He also has a whole lotta natural talent, and gave Gomi a good run for his money back in 2004 before falling prey to a submission. This time I expect him to give Noons a good run for his money before falling prey to a knockout.

Down £10.00 based on £10 stake per fight

Cage Rage 20: Born 2 Fight

Event February 10, 2007
Published February 10, 2007 19:00 GMT
  • Rob Broughton (-180) vs Tengiz Tedoradze (+150)
    • Broughton has been on a tear in Cage Rage, stopping James Thompson, Robert Berry, and Butterbean when most expected him to lose and earning a reputation as a good under dog fighter and a future prospect in the super heavyweight division. Tedoradze has also defeated Thompson and Berry, and has much more experience than 'The Bear', but he has shown weakness in his chin before, and he will be giving up a lot of weight against Broughton. I think that's enough to give Broughton the nod again. Expect another TKO via Broughton's mean ground and pound offence.

Down £0.51 based on £10 stake per fight

UFC 67: All Or Nothing

Event February 3, 2007
Published February 3, 2007 20:17 GMT
  • Anderson Silva (-400) vs Travis Lutter (+300)
    • I expect this fight to come down to how much of the fight Silva can keep standing. Originally I had Lutter grinding out a decision victory, but his failure to make weight changes things, with the fight no longer for the title. Silva is likely to have a massive mental advantage which is bound to impact on both fighters' performances. Silva by stoppage.
  • Quinton Jackson (-700) vs Marvin Eastman (+450)
    • Eastman often seems one step away from being a real force, and his win against Rampage the first time they met shows this potential. Jackson's style has toned down in recent years and we have seen less exciting performances than characterised his early career, but it is still effective when it comes to getting the W's. All the signs point towards a Jackson decision victory.
  • Patrick Cote (-180) vs Scott Smith (+150)
    • The ending to Smith's last fight left many jaws on the floor, but he also showed possible weaknesses in his standup game that a striker like Cote should be able to take advantage of. This will be a standup war I expect Cote to win.
  • Jorge Rivera (-260) vs Terry Martin (+200)
    • Rivera has a ton of natural talent and has looked good in his last performances. He should outclass Martin handily.

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