All time accuracy: 36/55 picks (65%)
Running total (£10 stake per fight): Up £34.55
Up £6.43 based on £10 stake per fight
UFC Fight Night 8: Rashad Evans vs Sean Salmon
Event January 25, 2007
Published January 24, 2007 22:10 GMT
- Rashad Evans (-526) vs Sean Salmon (+476)
- Sean Salmon comes into the UFC with a solid wrestling background and a proven submission game (seven of his nine victories coming this way), but he has faced very few credible opponents. Rashad has demonstrated an extremely effective style for bagging W's in the Octagon, and he most recently looked great in his win over Jason Lambert. Salmon is unlikely to halt Evans' great strides through the light heavyweight division.
- Heath Herring (-421) vs Jake O'Brien (+381)
- Like Salmon (9-1), Jake O'Brien (9-0) has a record that might be impressive if the majority of his wins didn't come against fighters with losing records. On the other hand Heath Herring has 11 losses to his name, but in a long record featuring the best heavyweights in the world, relativity is king.
- The only concern with Herring is his recent inactivity, with only two outings plus the infamous No Contest with Nakao throughout 2005-2006 – but experience combined with youth should help him shake his ring rust quickly. This should turn into a slugfest that Herring will win handily.
- Nate Marquardt (-248) vs Dean Lister (+228)
- Submission master Dean Lister comes into this fight a fairly big underdog, and I think the bookmakers have it right again here. With the exception of his last fight where he took Yuki Susaki to a decision and won, Lister has only ever got the win via submission, and he has lost every fight that went to decision other than the aforementioned. Marquardt is an accomplished and tough opponent who is not susceptible to submissions. He has taken a good few of his fights to a decision, and I expect him to do the same here and win by unanimous decision.
- Clay Guida (-115) vs Din Thomas (+105)
- I've always considered Din Thomas to be an underrated fighter who should have gained wider recognition than he had received before The Ultimate Fighter 3. His appearance on the reality show largely solved this problem when he made it to the semifinals, and came off as one of the stronger and more likeable personalities on the show.
- I was impressed with Guida's debut at UFC 64 – a performance that showed his potential to become a future force in the division –, but Thomas is one of the prime candidates from TUF 3 to properly stage "The Comeback", and I feel he has all the momentum to do just that. A second submission in a row would make a good start.
Up £3.97 based on £10 stake per fight
Pride Shockwave 2006
Event December 31, 2006
Published December 30, 1730 GMT.
- Fedor Emelienenko (-643) vs Mark Hunt (+593)
- Hunt is going into this fight a massive underdog, and I think he is being underestimated. This is, after all, the man with back-to-back wins against Wanderlei Silva and Mirko Filipovic. He never chokes, and he possesses an invincible jaw. One submission loss against Josh Barnett has devalued Hunt massively: the fact is anyone can get caught by Barnett.
- Having said all that, it's still going to be a serious challenge for Hunt to defend against Fedor's sambo for the full three rounds. If he can, I think The Samoan Monster will win another decision. As it is, I'll still have to take Fedor by a second or third round submission. But again – I expect this to be a difficult fight for The Russian Experiment.
- Mauricio Rua (-398) vs Kazuhiro Nakamura (+368)
- Nakamura is sharp on the feet and tough on the ground, but he does not compare well to a fighter of Shogun's calibre. Rua will heavily outgun him on the feet, and shouldn't have trouble holding his own on the ground. Shogun by KO.
- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-110) vs Josh Barnett (+100)
- Their first fight was perhaps fight of the year, and expectations for the rematch are extremely high. We already know these two are separated by a hair's width, but I'd give the edge to Barnett again. He trumps Big Nog physically in both age and size, and is at the peak of his career, whereas Nog seemed to peak two or three years back. Josh should be able to get the submission before time runs out this time – but let's just hope that after seven fights in one year he is not suffering from burnout.
- Akihiro Gono (-101) vs Yuki Kondo (-109)
- Kondo won the first time these two met with Gono's corner throwing in the towel due to strikes. That was over five years ago however, and in more recent times Gono has looked the better all-round fighter, losing only to the very best of them (his last three losses were to Denis Kang, Dan Henderson, and Mauricio Rua). I take Gono by unanimous decision.
Down £1.27 based on £10 stake per fight
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz II
Event December 30, 2006
Published December 29, 2230 GMT.
- Chuck Liddell (-260) vs Tito Ortiz
(+200)
- Ortiz always comes in well conditioned and should be able to put up more competition against Liddell than his recent opponents have. Nevertheless he will likely be unable to impose a solid and sustained ground game on Liddell, and on the feet he will be in constant danger. Chuck should make it seven KO's in a row this Saturday.
- Forrest Griffin (-270) vs Keith Jardine
(+210)
- Forrest is coming fresh off a decisive win over Stephen Bonnar and looked great in his fight against Ortiz before that, despite losing the decision. Jardine recently lost to Bonnar, and while a solid performer has never looked to be in the same class as Griffin. This should be an easy win for Forrest on his path towards a title shot, and it's surprising he isn't a bigger favourite.
- Andrei Arlovski (-420) vs Marcio Cruz
(+320)
- With the exception of his last fight (where he was decisioned), Arlovski has only ever lost when his jaw lets him down, and Marcio Cruz will not be testing it in this fight. Arlovski is not susceptible to submissions, and we should see a return to the fearsome form he was in before the second fight with Sylvia.
- Michael Bisping (-400) vs Eric Schafer (+300)
- After what seems like an unnecessarily long wait since winning the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, Michael Bisping is finally making his debut on UFC pay-per-view. The skills he showed on the reality show impressed many, showing a well rounded standup and ground game that made for exciting fights. He should be able to take Schafer in his debut.
Up £13.54 based on £10 stake per fight
UFC 65: Bad Intentions
(November 18, 2006)
- Matt Hughes (-173) vs George St Pierre
(+163)
- Matt Hughes is probably the greatest Welterweight of all time, but everyone loses eventually, and I think the time for Hughes' winning streak to come to an end is now. St Pierre has looked spectacular every time since his first fight with Hughes – where he looked great up until he got submitted with seconds left in the round. Mentally Hughes may have the advantage, but St Pierre prove his own mental fortitude recently coming back against BJ Penn after the first round. I see this one going to a decision that St Pierre will take.
- Tim Sylvia (-255) vs Jeff Monson
(+235)
- Monson is a submission master, where Sylvia has shown some weakness, but it will not matter in a fight where he is so physically out-gunned. The reach advantage alone will be be a nightmare for the Snowman, and he is going to find it almost impossible to take Sylvia down. Sylvia should win by knockout in the early rounds, with a decision victory a distant second possibility.
- Brandon Vera (-301) vs Frank Mir
(+271)
- Mir may have finally gotten in good shape for this fight, but a fighter does not go from 0 to 10 from one fight to the next, and that's what would be required from Mir to take this one.
- Alessio Sakara (-506) vs Drew McFedries
(+456)
- Sakara looked to be very promising, showing some great striking ability, until he got submitted by Dean Lister in his last fight at UFC 60. Now he has been brought back against an opponent who is likely to stand with him. This should allow Sakara's striking to be showcased again, and re-establish his spot as one of the light heavyweight division's most promising up-and-comers. Look for Sakara's first KO in the UFC.
Down £3.12 based on £10 stake per fight
Pride 32: The Real Deal
(October 21, 2006)
- Fedor Emelianenko (-950) vs Mark Coleman (+860)
- No surprises here: as much as Coleman has given the sport, he hasn't been able to compete with the big guns for years. Pride, however, continue to match him up with exactly that—first Cro Cop, then Shogun, and now Fedor. This match cannot go beyond the first round.
- Mauricio Rua (-305) vs Kevin Randleman (+275)
- It goes against all my rational instincts, but I can't help take The Monster on this outing. Randleman is the most athletically gifted fighter the sport has ever seen, and at 35 age isn't yet a strong factor. He only loses when he lacks the killer instinct, and pre-fight interviews show he has it coming into this fight. Something tells me a Randleman renaissance is due.
- Dan Henderson (-209) vs Vitor Belfort
(+189)
- "Hollywood" Henderson will be outweighed, and will have to temper his love for his own overhand right, but he still outshines Vitor in the reliability department ten to one.
- Josh Barnett (-950) vs Pawel Nastula
(+860)
- Josh Barnett has just established himself as heavyweight #3 in the world, and for good reason. It takes nothing less than Cro Cop to beat him at this point in his career.
