Down £7.30 based on £10 stake per fight

UFC 82: Pride of a Champion

Event March 1, 2008

Picks Published March 1, 2008 20:46 GMT

• Anderson Silva (1.74) vs Dan Henderson (2.24)

  • Predicting the outcome of this fight is ludicrously challenging -- it is by far the hardest pick I have made in MMA. The strengths and weaknesses of each fighter ping pong around in my head in a way that leads me to make a strong decision in one fighter's favour one minute, and a strong decision in the other's favour the next. Henderson has an excellent history of handling incredibly tough opposition, he has never been knocked out, and he always manages to stay out of harms way on the feet. He is a bare-bones, no frills greco-roman wrestling machine. Only the Nogueira brothers have submitted him, and that was at higher weight classes. He can hang with and beat the best of them at light heavyweight, and as such his potential at 185 lbs is tremendous. The chances of stopping the man will always be slim, even if you are the most dynamic finisher in MMA (which I believe Anderson Silva is at this moment).

    Silva did show some susceptibility to submissions back in his early Pride career, but looking back on his record now it has always been kept in good order. He has come into his prime recently in a massive way, and although Dan thinks the style matchups he has been given in the UFC have favoured him, it always comes down to what can be inferred from a fighter's performances, as much as what he was able to show. I truly believe in his last several fights that it wouldn't have mattered who was standing across from him. I infer from his recent performances not just a fighter who can stun Leben, Lutter, Marquardt, and Franklin, but a fighter who can and will stun anyone put in front of him at this point in his career. In a recent interview Silva said that this fight will "set a new standard for MMA." I believe him, and I think it will be his hand raised at the end of the fight. I will take Anderson by decision in a blistering fight with submission opportunities.

• Cheick Kongo (1.66) vs Heath Herring (2.26)
  • Much has been said of how lacklustre this fight looks as the co-main event of a card so rich in talent, and I agree. Kongo beat Crop Cop in what was essentially a kickboxing match last year, and I guess that is supposed to transfer a lot of hype onto him like it did for Gonzaga. And yet the manner in which he won -- a slow, torturous decision during which Kongo landed more than one groin shot -- prevents this from happening. Few anticipate this bout, but there is always the potential that it will pleasantly surprise. Kongo can be easily beaten if taken down by someone with legitimate ground skills, but will be any heavyweight's nightmare standing. Herring is just not the man to take him to the ground and fight this fight intelligently. He is too rash, and makes bad decisions in the heat of the moment. He also doesn't have a great takedown, and so may not always be able to control where the fight takes place. I think Herring will stand with Kongo long enough for the French striker to finish him. I take Kongo by TKO.
• Yushin Okami (1.53) vs Evan Tanner (2.54)
  • I want Tanner to win this fight with every fibre of my MMA-fan being, but the forces against him are too strong to make a betting decision in his favour. He is 37 years of age and coming off a layoff of two years where his body has probably been put through the ringer physically. I am also unsure that he has the strength advantage over Okami he needs to control the fight. I believe he will be in good shape for this fight, but he is fighting a highly talented opponent who is too young, has stayed too sharp, and does not have enough holes in his game. I predict Okami takes this by decision, but I would be glad to lose this bet.
• Chris Leben (1.65) vs Alessio Sakara (2.12)
  • Most appear to be picking Leben in this fight -- for his heavy hands, his robust chin, or his great heart and determination to push forward throughout a fight (an area where Sakara has looked decisively weak in recent losses). This will almost certainly be a striking battle. Sakara is big and strong at 185 lbs, and has a good technical striking ability. We saw what happened the last time Leben went up against a technical striker in Silva. While Sakara can't hold a flame to "The Spider" as far as his striking versatility or MMA prowess, I think the same factor that allowed Silva to expose Leben on the feet will come into play in this fight. I think Sakara will pick apart Leben over the duration of the fight, and net himself a decision victory in his middleweight debut.

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UFC 81: Breaking Point

Event February 2, 2008

Picks Published February 1, 2008 18:31 GMT

Starting from this event I will be publishing odds in decimal style (2.0) instead of American style (+100) as used in the past. These odds give a very clear indication of your return: they simply represent the multiplier placed on your stake if you win. Odds are taken from betfair.com at the time of publishing.

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (1.64) vs Tim Sylvia (2.34)
  • The big Brazilian submission magician should have a clear advantage on the ground over Sylvia in this fight, but I don't think it will be decided there. I think most of the fight will be standing, with Sylvia being as hard to take down as he is and Nogueira as comfortable standing as he is. Although Sylvia can be extremely effective at nullifying his opponent with his long jab, Nogueira has an excellent track record when it comes to decisions (which I believe this fight will end up as). He keeps busy, looks technical, and mixes things up enough to make a clear impression on the judges. He has beaten Werdum, Barnett, and recently Herring this way, and I'm willing to bank on him doing something similar against "The Maine-iac" tomorrow.
• Brock Lesnar (1.55) vs Frank Mir (2.44)
  • My head cinema keeps showing me Lesnar on top of Mir, beating the hell out of him until the ref jumps in. No matter how hard I try, it will not show me Frank Mir snapping on a submission from the bottom. Call me a moron, but I think that means something... Perhaps that my head cinema is not up to scratch, but perhaps that Mir is no longer the killer he once was. I just can't forget how bad Mir looked in his first three "comeback" fights, and against Hardonk I think reports of his return to form have been greatly exaggerated. Hardonk crazily decided to play Jiu Jitsu with him, and Mir reversed the kickboxer's submission attempt to secure the Kimura early in the first round. Mir may be washed up, but that doesn't mean a kickboxer can beat him at his own game. Lesnar needs to avoid handing Mir a submission with clumsy ground and pound, but as long as he manages this I think he will overpower and overwhelm the former champ for the eventual TKO. And I say this having only seen a few minutes of Lesnar fighting a tomato can -- I guess I have lost all faith in Mir.
• Terry Martin (1.41) vs Marvin Eastman (2.10)
  • It is difficult to pick Eastman in any UFC fight, as he clearly has some kind of Octagon curse on his soul. In fact I'd go so far as to say it feels positively wrong putting money down on him in this fight. But superstition has to give way to greater variables such as style matchups and misplaced hype. I thought Martin may have been over-hyped following his stoppages over Rivera and Salaverry, both of which seemed to have an element of good fortune in them (yes, combined with Martin's brute power), and his knockout loss to Leben convinced me further. While Eastman is by no means a lock (at 0-3 on the big stage), he is a quality fighter and should not overwhelmed by Martin's power coming down from the 205 lb division. His odds are attractive enough for me to wager that tomorrow will be the night Eastman's curse is lifted.
• Nate Marquardt (1.40) vs Jeremy Horn (2.22)
  • These two were scheduled to fight some years back but the fight was cancelled amid promotional difficulties. Back then Horn would have been the favourite against Marquardt, but the situation of both men's careers have changed since. Style-wise this is a close matchup, with both men taking a fairly low energy, high winnability approach to fighting with an emphasis on submissions. Horn has been around a long time, but Nate is no stranger to the sport himself. Marquardt is however the younger and hungrier fighter, with Horn recently showing up to fights that he does not seem 100% committed to winning. The fact that he is a late stand-in for Thales Leites, who pulled out in early January with a broken hand, does not bode well for him on this score. I'll take Marquardt by decision for this reason.

Up £42.09 based on £10 stake per fight

UFC 80: Rapid Fire

Event January 19, 2008

Picks Published January 18, 2008 21:12 GMT

• BJ Penn (-238) vs Joe Stevenson (+210)
  • Stevenson is a strong and compact wrestler with great conditioning and a good set of skills, but the only obvious weakness for him to exploit in Penn is his cardio, which has been BJ's downfall competing in higher weight classes. At 155 pounds Penn's conditioning has always looked good however, leaving few routes for Stevenson to take towards victory. While there is some possibility of Joe maintaining positional dominance for a decision victory, BJ's ground skills would make this incredibly difficult to put into practise. I see Penn outclassing Stevenson on the ground in this fight to get the submission in rounds one or two.
• Gabriel Gonzaga (-238) vs Fabricio Werdum (+186)
  • In terms of entertainment, I don't like the looks of this fight. Gonzaga has been known to retreat into slow paced battles against technical strikers (although his instant knockout potential is well documented), and Werdum showed against Arlovski that he is willing to play the points game when this happens. In terms of betting, I find the fight much more attractive. Werdum holds a previous win over Gonzaga early in both men's careers, where he TKOd the larger fighter. This makes it all the more likely that Gonzaga will show caution on the feet, opening the door for Werdum to outpoint him to a decision victory. Both men are great on the ground in different ways, but this can often lead to fighters who are also confident in their striking ability to keep it standing. Werdum by decision.
• Kendall Grove (-385) vs Jorge Rivera (+172)
  • Rivera is a bit of an enigma -- he is a talented and versatile fighter, but his performances are inconsistent and usually he either looks 'good' or 'bad' with no middle ground. Grove is a more consistent fighter who is also well rounded, and has a distinct age and reach advantage in this fight. While these factors playing into the outcome of this fight is a concern, I am still willing to take a gamble on Jorge putting on one of his 'hot' performances tomorrow night, which I think could result in a decision or submission victory for him.
• Wilson Gouveia (-210) vs Jason Lambert (+170)
  • Jason Lambert is a powerful fighter with an effective ground & pound game, and he can also be dangerous on the feet. However he is not the most technical of fighters, nor is he invulnerable to submissions (although to his credit he has not been submitted in over six years). Gouveia is accomplished on the ground, and technical on the feet. Combine his technical skills with his cockiness in the cage, and I see him able to pick apart Lambert on the feet, and equalise him on the ground -- where the chances of him pulling off a submission are not insignificant. Despite Lambert's much more attractive odds in an evenly matched fight, I have to put my money on Gouveia.

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UFC 77: Hostile Territory

Event October 20, 2007

Picks Published October 19, 2007 22:00 GMT

• Anderson Silva (-210) vs Rich Franklin (+170)
  • After what happened last time these two met in the Octagon, and no matter what he says, there's no way in hell Franklin wants to stand with Silva in this fight -- I'd like to think of him as that intelligent. Imagining him to go out looking to ground and pound his way to victory, I don't see Rich able to keep the fight on the ground for long durations. When it gets to the feet Silva will come out on top, and even on the ground Rich is in danger of being submitted. One way or another, I see Silva winnning this -- perhaps by decision.
• Brandon Vera (-150) vs Tim Sylvia (+120)
  • There is a feeling in my gut telling me Tim Sylvia will be heavyweight champ for the third time come February -- I can already see Dana begrudgingly fitting the belt around his waist again. Which would mean I would pick him to win this fight, right? Wrong. As incoherent this prediction is with that of Sylvia becoming a three time champion, I think Vera has attributes that will allow him to overwhelm and finish the Maine-iac very quickly: speed, explosiveness, and audacity. I expect him to stop Sylvia by TKO or submission in the "very" first round.
• Kalib Starnes (-130) vs Alan Belcher (+100)
  • This is one of those fights where there's two potential standout fighters ably climbing the ranks of a division, but space for the UFC to promote only one. They are matched up against each other, and the winner gets a push while the loser has to do something special in the future before opportunities will come his way. Starnes may have the more impressive record with wins over Leben and Macdonald -- but records don't make fights, styles do. I think the more aggressive and versatile Belcher will win this battle of styles.
• Yushin Okami (-210) vs Jason Macdonald (+170)
  • Macdonald has proven his metal recently with a good string of victories in the UFC over the likes of Herman, Leben, and Singer -- but his past record has plenty of holes in it. He has suffered defeat at the hands of Cote, Starnes, Eastman, and Carter. All formidable opponents, but none at Okami's level. And of course he was stopped by Franklin. While Okami's recent UFC record looks near identical, a string of W's before a loss to "Ace", he has shown far fewer weaknesses in his game -- in fact he has never even been finished. He should be able to handle anything Macdonald throws at him and come out on top.

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UFC 74: Respect

Event August 25, 2007

Picks Published August 23, 2007 19:45 GMT

• Gabriel Gonzaga (-135) vs Randy Couture (+105)
  • Gonzaga has shown us he is proficient on the ground and can be very dangerous on the feet. He has exceptional timing in the ring. Couture is the greatest legend in the sport: we all know how effective he is in every area of the game. I think this fight will become a battle of Couture's in-ring intelligence against Gonzaga's physical prowess. Couture knows how to get the decision.
• Georges St. Pierre (-220) vs Josh Koscheck (+180)
  • Koscheck is no joke: he has just one loss on his record, and he just put the first on the record of Diego Sanchez. This is an excellent and challenging test for St. Pierre after losing his hard-fought-for title. More people than you might expect are picking Koscheck, but I think they're still jittery after the string of upsets witnessed earlier in the year. St. Pierre has made vast changes to his training regime following his loss, showing complete determination to rebound strongly. Few if any fighters could better GSP in such a state of mind.
• Kendall Grove (-260) vs Patrick Cote (+200)
  • Patrick Cote in some ways reminds me of Joe Riggs before him in the middleweight division: he is a popular and talented fighter who at a young age seems destined to fall short of greatness. Although I am a fan of Cote, I cannot help but see the killer instinct and will to win that Grove shows in the ring each time he fights. Grove by Will To Win in the second round.
• Clay Guida (-130) vs Marcus Aurelio (+100)
  • This is a difficult tossup of strengths: one fighter is youthful, and with it possesses the fire and dynamism of an up-and-coming talent; the other is highly experienced against top competition, and with it possesses the unflappable mind of a ring-wise veteran. Both have more talent than you can shake a stick at. I will fall back on Aurelio's credentials here.
• Frank Mir (-170) vs Antoni Hardonk (+140)
  • If there was one piece of advise I would give Mir for this fight, it would be "watch out you don't get knocked before you can get your bearings." If he does get his bearings, however, I believe we will see him submit someone again. And it's about time he does.